It’s easy to predict a Trump win when Democrats haven’t listened

The US presidential election is less than eight weeks away and what’s in store for American democracy is terrifying. The contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has disillusioned the electorate in a repeat of 2016.

This may be heard to hear but it shouldn’t be surprising. Trump will most probably win the election this year, embarking on another four years of calamity and division. The dysfunctional US electoral system will see Trump’s ironclad base come out in droves to vote for their leader. Meanwhile voter suppression, gerrymandering and a lackadaisical Democratic nominee will leave Biden’s campaign commiserating.

The Democrats have fielded a moderate establishment candidate with a lifelong career of flaws. Biden has maintained a centrist tone throughout the campaign trail by avoiding policy requests and instead calling for the soul of the nation to return. Leftists in his ranks, inspired by Bernie Sanders’ campaigns in 2016 and 2020, have rallied round Biden with reticence. A green new deal, universal healthcare and the defunding of America’s militarised police have not been at the forefront like so many wished. Registered Democrats opted to play it safe in their primary elections by attempting to outbid Trump’s chaos with decency and pragmatism.

Democrats forming a safety net enables Trump to continue to stoke fear and unrest with a law and order message. If they instead endorsed radical policies to counter the sheer inequality that the nation faces daily, then mobilisation and voter outreach could be far more substantial. Pandering to the centre when they believe that’s what Americans miss could be a grave mistake come November.

The crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida are imperative to gaining the presidency. Biden has a narrowing poll lead in some of these states, meaning Trump’s warning message of chaos and confusion under Democratic leadership could be reaching swathes of independent voters. The most popular swing state of Florida has unveiled a poll that puts Biden and Trump at a tie. The fiscally-conservative voters in the southern Florida landscape, mainly exiles from communist regimes, are reluctant to lend their support to Biden when the president attaches him to socialism.

This year’s highly-anticipated election is foreshadowed to be a repeat of 2016. The only difference is the progressive left of the Democrats are uniting behind Biden with a “vote blue no matter who” strategy. However, progressive activists in actress Susan Sarandon and Sanders’ primary co-chair Nina Turner are staging a “DemExit” to eradicate the corporatisation of left-wing politics. What traction their alternative party gains remains to be seen, but it coincides with the burgeoning theme of reforming US leftist movements entirely.

Why primary voters selected Biden as their nominee is the million-dollar question. The failures of 2016 helicoptered in the most incompetent president in US history. Biden has a narrow chance inhabiting the White House, albeit what the polls suggest.

To pivot on this, a hectic second term could unleash another celebrity opponent to run against the incumbent Trump. Rapper and presidential hopeful Kanye West has expressed interest this year but his campaign could be momentous in 2024 when anyone will do. Cue the Kardashians ending their juggernaut television series next year, is this to prompt justice reformer Kim Kardashian to seem like First Lady material in the future?

With Trump maintaining a core base of supporters and the Democrats losing their swing ones, anything is possible in the future. What is known is another four years of Trump would be a catastrophe. America, be ready.

Socialist commentator.

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